Dodge faces win-or-else season at North Texas

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/04/2010 -

DENTON, Texas (AP) -Todd Dodge is no longer the hot shot high school coach hired to energize the North Texas football program.

After 31 losses in three years, he's just trying to hang on to his job and avoid becoming another case study in why it's so rare for a coach to be plucked from the preps and put in charge of a major college team.

The athletic director who grabbed Dodge after he went 79-1 in five years at Southlake Carroll High School expects a winning season, which means at least seven victories when Dodge has just five in his college career.

Clemson, nearly a four-touchdown favorite Saturday in the season opener, inadvertently illustrated how far Dodge has fallen, referring to him as ``Tom Dodge'' in pregame notes.

``It's been very disappointing at times, with not being where I thought we'd be,'' Dodge said. ``We've taken a lot of black eyes and bloody noses.''

Dodge's first two years were tough and tougher, marked by routine blowouts on the field and sticky issues off it. Players kicked off the 2007 team accused him and his staff of racial bias, although the coaches were cleared by administrators. A year later, Dodge suspected some players were using drugs and tested every one of them during the season. Fifteen came back positive.

Perhaps the biggest setback came next, when two-year starting quarterback Giovanni Vizza left the team after the 2008 season. Not only was it critical to lose experience at the most important position in a four-receiver spread offense, but Dodge was hearing from others that Vizza figured the coach would start his son, then-redshirt freshman Riley Dodge.

``I recruited my son because he was the best possible option,'' Dodge said. ``But that didn't mean he was going to start over a guy that started for two years. When you go 1-11, everybody on the football team has to compete. But still, I'd invested 20 starts in a guy.''

With Vizza gone, Riley Dodge started 10 games, but the results were about the same. Now the coach's son - who won a state title in his dad's last high school season - isn't a full-time quarterback thanks to shoulder and arm injuries. He is listed as a receiver and just hoping to contribute for the next three years as a utility guy on offense.

``It's just different going from winning all the time to kind of struggling,'' Riley Dodge said. ``It builds a lot of character. It has humbled me and my dad a little bit.''

Nathan Tune is the quarterback now. The fifth-year senior with just two career starts holds the keys to a pass-happy offense that will go a long way toward determining whether Dodge stays or becomes Gerry Faust, the last coach who went straight from the prep ranks to the highest level of college football. Notre Dame fired him in 1985 after five mediocre seasons.

Defense will have to play a role, too. North Texas was last in the nation in scoring defense Dodge's first two seasons, another setback for him because he was criticized for bringing too many high school coaches with him, including his defensive coordinator. That coach was fired after the first season when the Mean Green gave up more than 70 points twice and 66 in another game.

All four former Carroll assistants are gone, leaving Dodge surrounded by assistants with more much college experience.

``We need a very experienced staff that has been at this level and understands some of the things at this level,'' athletic director Rick Villarreal said. ``And I think today Todd understands more about this level. I don't think he could have imagined that when he first took the job.''

Dodge was hired to help create a buzz and complete a push for a new stadium. The stadium part of the plan succeeded, but the buzz among alumni has been replaced by doubt. There's a chance Dodge won't be around when the new stadium opens next year.

Such circumstances are nothing new to Dodge, the former Texas quarterback who endured stinging criticism when he led the Longhorns in the 1980s. He knows what his athletic director expects, and he's ``fine with it.''

``The tough times here have not gotten in the way of me believing in how I can lead a football team and what our football team can do,'' Dodge said. ``When my time is over with, there won't be any excuses. Would I have done things differently? Sure.''

The victory count isn't likely to start against Clemson, but the Tigers should be the toughest opponent on the schedule. While last year's 2-10 record was the second in three years under Dodge, the Mean Green were much more competitive. Six of the losses were by a touchdown or less.

North Texas also has hope of a strong running game to complement Dodge's pass-first scheme. Lance Dunbar finished among the national leaders last year with 1,378 yards and 17 touchdowns rushing in just eight starts. Six of the team's top eight defenders return, including Craig Robertson, the leading tackler.

``Are we going to go 12-0? No. I don't think so,'' Dodge said. ``But we do have the potential to win seven or eight ball games. We're in a window of the 2010-11 seasons where we can really flip this thing and not look back.''

If not, it's probably back to high schools for Dodge.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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