Sports Network From Derby NBC

Horseracing Betting Lines

Mr. Bowling, trained by Larry Jones, went off as the 7-2 second choice behind the 3-1 favored entry of Dan and Sheila and Z Dager. Shared Property, the 4-1 morning-line favorite, went off as the 5-1 third pick in the 13-horse field.

 

Setting the pace was Alexander Thegreat with Hero of Order to his outside. Running third was Hammers Terror along with Z Dager. Mr. Bowling quickly settled into fifth on the outside.

 

Mr. Bowling was able to find room between horses as Z Dager and jockey Shave Sellers made a late surge. Albarado was able to get his horse to the wire first, posting a head victory over Z Dager with Shared Property another half- length back in third.

 

Mr. Bowling covered the distance in 1:43.49 on a fast Fair Grounds track.

 

Mr. Bowling added $105,000 to his earnings which now stand at $201,048. The Lecomte was the colt's third win in five career starts and his first since taking the Dover Stakes at Delaware Park on October 8. He last raced on October 30 at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois Stakes when he finished third.

 

Mine That Bird parlayed a pair of losses at Sunland Park in late February and March to win the Derby in 2009. Two years ago, Super Saver won on the slop at Churchill Downs after losing the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby in March and April, respectively. Last year, the lightly raced Animal Kingdom prevailed off two preps - an entry-level allowance loss on Mar. 3 followed by a win in the Spiral on Mar. 26.

 

As one can see, it doesn't really matter if the horses win or not prior to the Kentucky Derby. The key is to have enough graded earnings before the beginning of May to guarantee a spot in the Run for the Roses.

 

Super Saver (second by a neck in 2010), Street Sense (second by a nose in 2007), and Funny Cide (second by one half-length in 2003) all just missed winning at 1 1/8-miles prior to the Derby. The only two years since 2000 this trend has not held true were 2005 and 2009 when Giacomo and Mine That Bird, respectively, crossed the wire first at 50-1.

 

The most noticeable trend is the two-year-old jinx as Apollo in 1882 was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without a start at two. That means Todd Pletcher's Spring Hill Farm, who burst on the scene with a dazzling 6 1/4- length score in a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 14, will have a tough time catching up to his contemporaries in the coming months.

 

With most of the Kentucky Derby entrants coming to Churchill Downs with fewer and fewer starts, a horses' pedigree is a vital way of narrowing down the field to a more manageable number.

 

That is one reason why two-year-old champion Hansen is way down on my "Dirty Dozen" list. Despite all the early accomplishments, his breeding does not suggest success as the distances increase.

comments

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